City Scenario Templates
Reusable narrative and execution scaffolds for city‑scale simulation scenarios#
Scenarios are structured stories told through the simulation loop.
They define what happens, when it happens, and what pressures are applied — without hard‑coding outcomes.
Scenario templates allow cities to be:
- compared across runs
- stress‑tested under identical conditions
- explored across alternate futures
- used for training, policy testing, or research
Scenarios turn the city from a model into a laboratory.
Purpose#
Scenario templates exist to:
- standardize how scenarios are defined and executed
- separate narrative intent from simulation mechanics
- enable replay, comparison, and branching futures
- support crisis, growth, collapse, and recovery modeling
- provide AI‑legible scenario structure
Scenarios are inputs, not scripts.
Scenario as Substrate Expression#
Each scenario operates through the shared substrate:
- Structure (S) — which systems are stressed or altered
- Activation (E) — how intensity is injected or dampened
- Relational Time (R) — when events occur and how long effects persist
Scenarios shape conditions, not decisions.
Canonical Scenario Template Structure#
Every scenario should follow this structure.
Scenario Identity#
Scenario Name:
Scenario Type: growth / crisis / collapse / recovery / mixed
Primary Stress Domain(s): infrastructure, population, economy, governance, information, inequality
Time Horizon: short / medium / long
Replayable: yes / no
Narrative Intent#
Describe the high‑level story the scenario explores.
Examples:
- rapid growth under infrastructure strain
- misinformation‑driven unrest
- resource scarcity and governance response
- inequality‑driven fragmentation
- coordinated recovery after collapse
This section is human‑readable, not executable.
Initial Conditions#
Define the starting state of the city.
Include:
- baseline regimes for each subsystem
- resource stock levels
- population activation state
- governance legitimacy
- inequality distribution
Initial conditions anchor the scenario.
Trigger Events#
Define discrete events injected into the simulation.
Examples:
- infrastructure failure
- economic shock
- environmental event
- policy change
- information disruption
Each trigger specifies:
- affected subsystem(s)
- magnitude
- timing
Ongoing Pressures#
Define sustained forces applied over time.
Examples:
- prolonged resource scarcity
- sustained misinformation
- chronic underinvestment
- demographic shift
Ongoing pressures shape trajectory, not spikes.
Intervention Windows#
Define when interventions are allowed or expected.
Examples:
- early governance response window
- late emergency intervention
- recovery investment phase
Intervention timing is often more important than strength.
Success & Failure Conditions#
Define scenario evaluation criteria.
Examples:
- stabilization achieved
- collapse triggered
- inequality reduced
- legitimacy restored
Outcomes are observed, not forced.
Metrics & Observables#
Specify what is tracked.
Examples:
- population stress index
- economic volatility
- infrastructure failure rate
- trust and legitimacy
- inequality persistence
Metrics enable comparison across runs.
Branching Conditions (Optional)#
Define conditions that alter scenario flow.
Examples:
- if unrest exceeds threshold → emergency governance
- if trust recovers → accelerated recovery
Branching enables non‑linear futures.
Termination Conditions#
Define when the scenario ends.
Examples:
- time horizon reached
- irreversible collapse
- stable recovery achieved
Termination is a state, not a timer.
Canonical Scenario Archetypes#
Common reusable scenario families include:
- Growth Under Strain
- Infrastructure Shock
- Resource Scarcity Crisis
- Misinformation Cascade
- Inequality Fracture
- Governance Failure
- Coordinated Recovery
Each archetype can be parameterized.
Scenario Execution Flow#
Scenarios execute by:
- Initializing city state
- Injecting triggers and pressures
- Running the city simulation loop
- Applying interventions when allowed
- Observing outcomes and metrics
Scenarios do not override the simulation loop.
Integration Notes#
Scenario templates:
- sit above the city simulation loop
- remain domain‑agnostic
- enable comparison and learning
- support AI‑driven exploration
They are the interface between intent and dynamics.
Status#
Canonical city‑scale scenario template framework.
Designed for extension by domain‑specific or narrative layers.