🔗 RTT Facilities — Propagation Model

Cross‑System Risk & Failure Dynamics

This document defines the Facilities‑level propagation model used to understand how failures, degradation, and stress propagate within and across facilities systems.

It is grounded in the RTT Facilities Playbook and serves as the canonical reference for propagation logic across all Facilities domains, including RTT‑AGERI.

1. Purpose#

Facilities systems do not fail in isolation.

The purpose of this model is to:

• Identify how stress and failure propagate across systems
• Prevent cascading failures through early detection
• Inform prioritization, capital timing, and governance decisions
• Provide a shared propagation framework for all Facilities domains

Domain‑specific initiatives may model internal propagation, but cross‑system propagation is governed here.

2. Propagation Definition#

Propagation is the transmission of risk, degradation, or failure from one asset, corridor, or system to another over time.

Propagation may be:

• Direct — physical dependency (e.g., power loss disables pumps)
• Indirect — operational or human dependency
• Temporal — delayed effects that surface later
• Amplified — compounded by environmental or systemic stress

3. Propagation Layers#

Facilities propagation is modeled across four layers:

Layer 1 — Asset‑Level#

• Individual components
• Localized failures
• Immediate operational impact

Layer 2 — Corridor‑Level#

• Spatially linked assets
• Shared exposure to environment or load
• Domain‑specific modeling (e.g., AGERI corridors)

Layer 3 — System‑Level#

• Interdependent facilities systems:
  • Electrical
  • Water
  • Communications
  • Transportation
  • Emergency services

Layer 4 — Societal & Trust‑Level#

• Public safety
• Emergency response capacity
• Resident confidence and trust

4. Common Propagation Pathways#

Examples include:

• Electrical → water pumping failure
• Electrical → communications outage
• Electrical → traffic signal disruption
• Electrical → emergency response degradation
• Water → public health impacts
• Communications → coordination failure

These pathways are bidirectional and may compound under stress.

5. Stress Amplifiers#

Propagation severity increases under:

• Climate events (storms, heat, flooding)
• Aging infrastructure
• Deferred maintenance
• Staffing shortages
• Poor communication
• Capital misalignment

Stress amplifiers are treated as first‑class risk multipliers.

6. Detection & Early Warning#

Propagation risk is mitigated through:

• Drift detection
• Cross‑system indicators
• Corridor classification
• Historical failure pattern analysis
• Environmental monitoring

Early detection is prioritized over post‑failure response.

7. Governance Integration#

Propagation modeling informs:

• Modernization prioritization
• Capital timing decisions
• Audit focus areas
• Escalation thresholds
• Public communication strategy

Propagation risk that crosses systems triggers Facilities‑level governance review, not just domain‑level action.

8. Relationship to Domain‑Specific Models#

Domain initiatives (e.g., RTT‑AGERI):

• Model propagation within their asset class
• Feed results into this Facilities‑level model
• Do not redefine cross‑system logic

This ensures consistency and prevents siloed risk assessment.

9. Canonical Status#

This document is canonical.

All Facilities domains must reference this propagation model when addressing cross‑system risk.